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THE FEUTEX TOOLKIT

Dual Supplier Expected-Cost Scenario

Compare a backup allocation premium with an assumed reduction in disruption loss.

Supply Chain workspace● Runs in your browser
01 Your input
02 Your result
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FormulaBackup premium cost = v.annual_units*v.backup_share/100*v.backup_premium ; Expected loss reduction = (v.old_probability-v.new_probability)/100*v.disruption_loss ; Net expected benefit = (v.old_probability-v.new_probability)/100*v.disruption_loss-v.annual_units*v.backup_share/100*v.backup_premium
Sources and model references

Worked example

Inputs

Annual units
10000 items
Backup share
20 %
Backup premium
2 currency/item
Old probability
10 %
New probability
3 %
Disruption loss
100000 currency

Expected results

Backup premium cost
4000 currency
Expected loss reduction
7000 currency
Net expected benefit
3000 currency

Load the example in the workspace to reproduce these results. Display rounding does not change the underlying calculation.

How to use this tool

  1. Enter your own assumptions using a consistent currency and period.
  2. Review the scenario outputs and compare alternative inputs.
  3. Check the stated model limits before using the result in an operating plan.

Try this example

{
  "annual_units": 10000,
  "backup_share": 20,
  "backup_premium": 2,
  "old_probability": 10,
  "new_probability": 3,
  "disruption_loss": 100000
}

Accuracy and scope

One-event expected-value scenario. Event probabilities and loss amounts are assumptions; correlated failures and tail risk are not modeled.

Is my data uploaded?

This tool runs locally in your browser. Input and output are not sent to a processing server. Copy or download your result before leaving the page.