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THE FEUTEX TOOLKIT

Holt Linear Trend Forecast Step

Update a level and trend then project a selected number of steps forward.

Statistics workspace● Runs in your browser
01 Your input
02 Your result
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FormulaLevel = alpha*actual+(1-alpha)*(level+trend); Trend = beta*(alpha*actual+(1-alpha)*(level+trend)-level)+(1-beta)*trend; Forecast = alpha*actual+(1-alpha)*(level+trend)+h*(beta*(alpha*actual+(1-alpha)*(level+trend)-level)+(1-beta)*trend)
Sources and model references

Made for real tasks

  • Update a level and trend then project a selected number of steps forward.
Explore step-by-step workflows →

Worked example

Inputs

Previous level
100 number
Previous trend
2 number
New observation
105 number
Level weight
0.3 probability
Trend weight
0.2 probability
Forecast steps
3 count

Expected results

Level
102.9 number
Trend
2.18 number
Forecast
109.44 number

Load the example in the workspace to reproduce these results. Display rounding does not change the underlying calculation.

How to use this tool

  1. Enter previous level, previous trend, new observation, level weight, trend weight, forecast steps.
  2. Use the displayed units and confirm the model assumptions.
  3. Calculate and compare the outputs against your input scenario.

Try this example

{
  "level": 100,
  "trend": 2,
  "actual": 105,
  "alpha": 0.3,
  "beta": 0.2,
  "h": 3
}

Accuracy and scope

One undamped Holt update. No seasonal component, automatic fitting, or forecast intervals.

Is my data uploaded?

This tool runs locally in your browser. Input and output are not sent to a processing server. Copy or download your result before leaving the page.