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THE FEUTEX TOOLKIT

Expected Binary Brier Score

Measure expected squared-probability error from a true binary event rate and a constant forecast.

Statistics workspace● Runs in your browser
01 Your input
02 Your result
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FormulaScore = p*(1-q)**2+(1-p)*q**2; Irreducible = p*(1-p); Calibration Penalty = (p-q)**2
Sources and model references

Made for real tasks

  • Measure expected squared-probability error from a true binary event rate and a constant forecast.
Explore step-by-step workflows →

Worked example

Inputs

True event probability
0.3 probability
Forecast probability
0.5 probability

Expected results

Score
0.25 number
Irreducible
0.21 number
Calibration Penalty
0.04 number

Load the example in the workspace to reproduce these results. Display rounding does not change the underlying calculation.

How to use this tool

  1. Enter true event probability, forecast probability.
  2. Use the displayed units and confirm the model assumptions.
  3. Calculate and compare the outputs against your input scenario.

Try this example

{
  "p": 0.3,
  "q": 0.5
}

Accuracy and scope

Expected score for a constant probabilistic forecast with a known event rate; not a scored dataset or calibration curve.

Is my data uploaded?

This tool runs locally in your browser. Input and output are not sent to a processing server. Copy or download your result before leaving the page.