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THE FEUTEX TOOLKIT

Exponential Smoothing Forecast Update

Update a simple level forecast from one new observation and a smoothing weight.

Statistics workspace● Runs in your browser
01 Your input
02 Your result
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FormulaNew Level = alpha*actual+(1-alpha)*old; Forecast Error = actual-old
Sources and model references

Made for real tasks

  • Update a simple level forecast from one new observation and a smoothing weight.
Explore step-by-step workflows →

Worked example

Inputs

Previous level
100 number
New observation
120 number
Smoothing weight
0.3 fraction

Expected results

New Level
106 number
Forecast Error
20 number

Load the example in the workspace to reproduce these results. Display rounding does not change the underlying calculation.

How to use this tool

  1. Enter previous level, new observation, smoothing weight.
  2. Use the displayed units and confirm the model assumptions.
  3. Calculate and compare the outputs against your input scenario.

Try this example

{
  "old": 100,
  "actual": 120,
  "alpha": 0.3
}

Accuracy and scope

Single level update, without trend, seasonality, or fitted uncertainty; alpha is supplied rather than estimated.

Is my data uploaded?

This tool runs locally in your browser. Input and output are not sent to a processing server. Copy or download your result before leaving the page.